C19 Update with Oklahoma

Note Arkansas data is concave upward indicating exponential growth and therefore cannot be fit with a lognormal function like the other regions in today's figure. Once Arkansas slows down and rolls over it will be amenable to lognormal fitting.

2020-06-18

Total US C19 deaths 117,717

Last five daily = [767 296 395 836 754]

Future estimates

   123882 +/- 1758  =  Jul 1 total (95% confidence)

   132907 +/- 1758  =  Aug 1

   137199 +/- 1758  =  Sep 1

Total world C19 deaths 448,959

Last five daily = [4267 3344 3508 6786 5274]

Future estimates

   478404 +/- 100979  =  Jul 1 total (95% confidence)

   552308 +/- 100979  =  Aug 1

   605753 +/- 100979  =  Sep 1

Total Oklahoma C19 deaths 364

Last five daily = [-1  0  0  4  1]

Future estimates

   376 +/- 11  =  Jul 1 total (95% confidence)

   395 +/- 11  =  Aug 1

   403 +/- 11  =  Sep 1

Total Arkansas C19 deaths 197

Last five daily = [1 2 3 6 9]