Wednesday, July 8, 2020

C19 Update NN Italy and LN Texas


Today, neural network Italy and lognormal wold, US, Texas, Arkansas.



Tuesday, July 7, 2020

C19 Update World NN + Lognormal with Texas


We move the neural network world model to the top with a new look. The NN now has 20,995 parameters, another 64-node hidden layer was added to consistently get the error around R^2=0.999. The NN fit is done on the world total C19 death count (upper left) and the daily (upper right) is calculated from the total fit. The cross plot (lower right) is a measure of goodness of fit.

NN Predictions:

645018  =  Aug 1 daily (day 192)

779956  =  Sep 1 daily (day 223)

Lognormal with Texas and predictions. Texas accelerating and error bars are widening. Arkansas still exponential.

2020-07-07

Total US C19 deaths 130,285

Last five daily = [698 639 247 271 325]

Future estimates

   138069 +/- 2384  =  Aug 1 total (95% confidence)

   144320 +/- 2384  =  Sep 1


Total world C19 deaths 538,058

Last five daily = [5108 5058 4348 3513 3778]

Future estimates

   593005 +/- 179881  =  Aug 1 total (95% confidence)

   663330 +/- 179881  =  Sep 1


Total Texas C19 deaths 2,677

Last five daily = [39 58 20 21 36]

Future estimates

   3170 +/- 22647  =  Aug 1 total (95% confidence)

   3847 +/- 22647  =  Sep 1


Total Arkansas C19 deaths 292

Last five daily = [2 2 5 1 5]

Future estimates

   421 +/- 122107  =  Aug 1 total (95% confidence)

   619 +/- 122107  =  Sep 1



Tuesday, June 30, 2020

C19 Update with Texas + NN


2020-06-30

Total US C19 deaths 126,140

Last five daily = [2425  629  500  264  337]

Future estimates

   135941 +/- 2177  =  Aug 1 total (95% confidence)

   141469 +/- 2177  =  Sep 1


Total world C19 deaths 505,505

Last five daily = [6554 4869 4529 3183 3612]

Future estimates

   582664 +/- 179998  =  Aug 1 total (95% confidence)

   650556 +/- 179998  =  Sep 1


Total Texas C19 deaths 2,416

Last five daily = [47 37 34 14 14]

Future estimates

   2995 +/- 1807  =  Aug 1 total (95% confidence)

   3499 +/- 1807  =  Sep 1


Total Arkansas C19 deaths 265

Last five daily = [ 0  9 10  5  1]

 

Neural Net