C19 Update

 

C19 Update

 

India Questions and Fit

 This note came from reader CM in India. 

I just looked at your SEISMOS predictions for US deaths data.

There are two points I do not understand:

1. Why is there so much vertical scatter in the observed data? 

2. Your predications are based on data before dec 2020. What about predictions based on the latest available data? Would that not be more meaningful?

Also, can please provide predictions based on Indian data? There are several speculations about the oncoming "Third wave" and it would be very useful to have a reliable prediction. 

Thank you for reaching out CM. 

The US data scatter is due to uneven reporting on weekends vs weekdays, an effect that is much less evident in India data. Congratulations!

My point in making predictions based on US data through 19 Dec 2020 was to estimate, however crudely, the lives saved by vaccination since that date.

You asked for a fit of India C19 death data. As requested, result below. The outlying points may have made the fitting difficult, it took 37 iterations to get accuracy below 500 on the cumulative curve. I see no indication of a third wave.

C19 Prediction Check from 12/19/2020

 Back on 19 Dec 2020 I posted a fit of C19 US death data based on three lognormal curves, a total of 12 free parameters. The date is significant: Pfizer vaccine received emergency approval by the FDA on 10 Dec and Moderna the 19th. So all the data before 19 Dec was pre-vaccine. I archived the fit parameters from that day to allow comparison with actual death data that unfolded in the coming months after introduction of the vaccines. 

It has been 200 days since I fit the 19 Dec data. The plot below shows how well, or not well, the prediction worked. The top plot is cumulative US C19 deaths, with data before 12/19/2020 in blue dots and red dots for later data. The blue dashed line is the prediction based on the blue points only. In the lower plot, US covid daily death data are shown with the same color scheme. We can never know if the un-vaccinated pandemic in the US would have followed my prediction, but if we believe it was on the right track then vaccines have already saved 650K lives in the US alone. 

II hope you bought some Moderna stock and made some money, it is vegan you know. The real value is not on Wall Street, but in the many lives that carry on. Sometimes a normal life, just normal, is a beautiful thing. 

C19 Update

My state has 79% drop in C19 deaths in the last month, while only 17% of the state population have been vaccinated. Has the virus run its course, is it naturally on the decline? Or has frigid weather isolation and vaccine turned the tide?

C19 Update -- Cases in Freefall

 Seven-day average for cases in all three regions show dramatic decline, much more than can be explained by vaccine roll-out that has been challenging. Death data starting to show same effect. 

C19 Update and Vaccine

 Guess it has been a long pandemic, I must be getting lazy. Been over a week since last post. Most interesting right now is the 3-lognormal fit and prediction. Good news, I suppose, is that I got first dose of the Pfizer vaccine last Thursday.

Moderna Vaccine is Vegan

Moderna FDA advisory committee meeting is scheduled for 12/17 and meeting documents are available online. Below is an extract of the executive summary of the Moderna briefing document. I have emphasized in bold text the key phrase for those of us who care about animals. Note the Pfizer briefing document for the 12/10 FDA meeting is silent on animal content of their vaccine. 

The Moderna briefing says in part: 

‘[…] The proposed mRNA-1273 vaccine regimen consists of two 100-μg intramuscular (IM) injections administered 28 days apart. […] ModernaTX, Inc. (the Sponsor) has developed a rapid-response, proprietary vaccine platform based on a messenger RNA (mRNA) delivery system. The mRNA platform is based on knowledge of the established biology of cellular protein biosynthesis. mRNA is the ‘blueprint’ that cells use to synthesize the proteins needed for their physiology. Cells are able to uptake mRNA delivered in an LNP, translate the mRNA into its associated protein, and then express that protein viral antigen(s) on the cell surface to elicit an immune response. The delivered mRNA does not enter the cell nucleus or interact with the genome, is nonreplicating, and is only expressed transiently before undergoing degradation by the cell’s natural mRNA degradation process. […] The manufacturing process, which has been under development for 10 years, is cell-free and does not use vectors or animal products, preservatives or adjuvants. Recognizing the broad potential of mRNA science, the mRNA technology platform was designed to function so that it could rapidly pivot to address this pandemic. Moderna was able to leverage the learnings of numerous vaccines in development, along with early pre-clinical work with other coronaviruses to select the appropriate antigen design to rapidly respond to the public need.’