C19 Prediction Check from 12/19/2020

 Back on 19 Dec 2020 I posted a fit of C19 US death data based on three lognormal curves, a total of 12 free parameters. The date is significant: Pfizer vaccine received emergency approval by the FDA on 10 Dec and Moderna the 19th. So all the data before 19 Dec was pre-vaccine. I archived the fit parameters from that day to allow comparison with actual death data that unfolded in the coming months after introduction of the vaccines. 

It has been 200 days since I fit the 19 Dec data. The plot below shows how well, or not well, the prediction worked. The top plot is cumulative US C19 deaths, with data before 12/19/2020 in blue dots and red dots for later data. The blue dashed line is the prediction based on the blue points only. In the lower plot, US covid daily death data are shown with the same color scheme. We can never know if the un-vaccinated pandemic in the US would have followed my prediction, but if we believe it was on the right track then vaccines have already saved 650K lives in the US alone. 

II hope you bought some Moderna stock and made some money, it is vegan you know. The real value is not on Wall Street, but in the many lives that carry on. Sometimes a normal life, just normal, is a beautiful thing.