Apr 21
cumulative deaths ~ 24000
predicted fit max = 31474
May 2
cumulative deaths = 28236
predicted fit max = 35357 +/- 616
Arkansas still small numbers, but seems to be accelerating.
Saturday, May 2, 2020
C19 Updates with Italy
As the country farthest along with good data it is worthwhile to check in with Italy as our guest region. Our first look at Italy was on Apr 21. In fact Italy was the country that convinced me the C19 death data as lognormal. Rosano et al. (2019) estimate 17000 seasonal flu deaths in Italy on average over the period 2014-2017.
Apr 21
cumulative deaths ~ 24000
predicted fit max = 31474
May 2
cumulative deaths = 28236
predicted fit max = 35357 +/- 616
Arkansas still small numbers, but seems to be accelerating.
Apr 21
cumulative deaths ~ 24000
predicted fit max = 31474
May 2
cumulative deaths = 28236
predicted fit max = 35357 +/- 616
Arkansas still small numbers, but seems to be accelerating.