Italy is the farthest along of the countries who may have reliable data. Plotted up both function fits and — eureka!— data is clearly lognormal. More than just semantics or esoteric mathematics. The Italy logistic fit predicts it will be over by day 110 (May 11) with 24,050 dead of C19. Lognormal predicts it will be not over till day 170 (Jul 10) with 31,470 deaths.
What does this imply for world data fit? My gut feeling it must also be lognormal, but I recall hearing that oil well decline curves are lognormal but the decline curve for many wells is logistic (gaussian). World data for now is a better logistic fit, but we are just a bit past halfway on the way up.
