C19 update with Algeria

Algeria is interesting as showing a late surge after day 100. The lognormal fit has surprisingly tight error bands considering the surge.

Arkansas is plotted with fit line only, no bands as they are crazy big. But the fit lines shows the lognormal function is not able to accommodate the geometry of this data, yet.

Monthly estimates continue to tick up for the US.

2020-05-15 USA Estimated C19 Deaths

  Jun 1 .... .total = 109,586 ..... daily = 1,006

  Jul 1  ..... total = 131,174 ..... daily = 493

  Aug 1..... total = 142,106 ..... daily = 243

  Sep 1 ..... total = 147,609 ..... daily = 125