Sunday, April 26, 2020

C19 Update - New Look and Brazil Request

New four panel plot for logistic fit of cumulative C19 death data for world, Spain, US, and Arkansas.  Note the low uncertainty on world, US and Arkansas because they are not yet rolled over the top. But Spain shows high uncertainty for logistic fit because past the ramp midway point it is increasingly lognormal rather than logistic.

Second four panel plot is Lognormal fit for same regions, with uncertainty complimentary to the logistic plot. Here we see low uncertainty on lognormal because the data hugs a lognormal curve very tightly. I predict that eventually world, US and Arkansas will also show Lognormal behavior and tighten up on uncertainty.






Feedback:
"Hi Liner, could you fit those curves for Brazil?" EPL in Campinas
Sure, plots for Brazil shown below. CL

Brazil