Second four panel plot is Lognormal fit for same regions, with uncertainty complimentary to the logistic plot. Here we see low uncertainty on lognormal because the data hugs a lognormal curve very tightly. I predict that eventually world, US and Arkansas will also show Lognormal behavior and tighten up on uncertainty.
"Hi Liner, could you fit those curves for Brazil?" EPL in Campinas
Sure, plots for Brazil shown below. CL
Brazil