C19 Update with Brazil

Arkansas is accelerating faster than lognormal can handle so we just show the data points today. Keep and eye on this Financial Times C19 page (open access) for global information from a top data analytics team. Love the squish plot I show at the bottom of this post that clearly indicates global daily death count has reversed decline and is increasing.

2020-06-13

Total US C19 deaths 114,669

Last five daily = [496 969 927 885 846]

Future estimates

   123731 +/- 2187  =  Jul 1 total (95% confidence)

   132801 +/- 2187  =  Aug 1

   137124 +/- 2187  =  Sep 1

Total world C19 deaths 425,394

Last five daily = [3747 4884 5611 4392 3933]

Future estimates

   468241 +/- 65124  =  Jul 1 total (95% confidence)

   530831 +/- 65124  =  Aug 1

   572566 +/- 65124  =  Sep 1

Total Brazil C19 deaths 41,828

Last five daily = [ 679 1272 1274 1239  909]

Future estimates

   60693 +/- 23528  =  Jul 1 total (95% confidence)

   85330 +/- 23528  =  Aug 1

   98579 +/- 23528  =  Sep 1