C19 Update with Brazil + World NN

2020-06-23

Total US C19 deaths 120,402

Last five daily = [715 692 595 258 425]

Future estimates

   124149 +/- 1529  =  Jul 1 total (95% confidence)

   133420 +/- 1529  =  Aug 1

   137898 +/- 1529  =  Sep 1

Total world C19 deaths 472,171

Last five daily = [5020 6090 4452 3876 3774]

Future estimates

   487592 +/- 175534  =  Jul 1 total (95% confidence)

   572467 +/- 175534  =  Aug 1

   637861 +/- 175534  =  Sep 1

Total Brazil C19 deaths 51,271

Last five daily = [1238 1206 1022  615  680]

Future estimates

   59046 +/- 10003  =  Jul 1 total (95% confidence)

   80349 +/- 10003  =  Aug 1

   90593 +/- 10003  =  Sep 1

Total Arkansas C19 deaths 227

Last five daily = [11  6 10  1  2]

As hoped, by applying yesterday's trained neural network to today's data the fit is revised by addition of the new data point. You can compare yesterday's NN result on your own to see the effect. Very nice.

Score =  0.917

Neural Net: MLPRegressor(activation='tanh', alpha=0.0001, batch_size='auto', beta_1=0.9,

             beta_2=0.999, early_stopping=False, epsilon=1e-08,

             hidden_layer_sizes=(15,), learning_rate='constant',

             learning_rate_init=0.001, max_fun=15000, max_iter=2000,

             momentum=0.9, n_iter_no_change=10, nesterovs_momentum=True,

             power_t=0.5, random_state=5, shuffle=True, solver='lbfgs',

             tol=0.0001, validation_fraction=0.1, verbose=False,

             warm_start=False)

Total World C19 deaths 472,154

Last five daily = [5020 6090 4452 3876 3774]

Future estimates

   4424  =  Jul 1 daily (day 161)

   4507  =  Aug 1 daily (day 192)

   4581  =  Sep 1 daily (day 223)