Sunday, May 17, 2020

C19 Update with Romania

As we have seen most countries and states show lognormal behavior for cumulative C19 deaths, but a few do not. These seem to be regions with sparse data. Our guest region today, Romania, is just such a case -- as is Arkansas has been since April 28. So today we show logistic fit for Romania and Arkansas. Going forward I will check lognormal and revert to logistic when needed.

2020-05-17 USA Estimated C19 Deaths
  Jun 1 ..... total = 110,503 ..... daily = 1,053
  Jul 1  ..... total = 133,587 ..... daily = 542
  Aug 1..... total = 145,876 ..... daily = 281
  Sep 1 ..... total = 152,379 ..... daily = 152


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