Arkansas death count is still small but rising on a steep trajectory, too steep for lognormal fit. It is also outracing a logistic fit (bottom plot) and that implies exponential growth.
If it helps, I find this on web "When resources are unlimited, populations exhibit exponential growth, resulting in a J-shaped curve. When resources are limited, populations exhibit logistic growth. In logistic growth, population expansion decreases as resources become scarce." In the Arkansas case this would seem to imply an unlimited pool of potential C19 infections, or at least the boundaries are not yet having an impact on the morality.
Arkansas logistic fit:
