This note came from reader CM in India.
I just looked at your SEISMOS predictions for US deaths data.
There are two points I do not understand:
1. Why is there so much vertical scatter in the observed data?2. Your predications are based on data before dec 2020. What about predictions based on the latest available data? Would that not be more meaningful?Also, can please provide predictions based on Indian data? There are several speculations about the oncoming "Third wave" and it would be very useful to have a reliable prediction.
Thank you for reaching out CM.
The US data scatter is due to uneven reporting on weekends vs weekdays, an effect that is much less evident in India data. Congratulations!
My point in making predictions based on US data through 19 Dec 2020 was to estimate, however crudely, the lives saved by vaccination since that date.
You asked for a fit of India C19 death data. As requested, result below. The outlying points may have made the fitting difficult, it took 37 iterations to get accuracy below 500 on the cumulative curve. I see no indication of a third wave.
