Friday, January 22, 2021

C19 Update

 


Prediction update. First figure below is the latest prediction based on US daily death C19 data up through 19 Dec (blue dots) and showing data points since that date (red dots). This example shows the danger of extrapolation (prediction). Actual data has drifted well below the 19 Dec prediction, perhaps indicating the US situation is improving.

Fitting all data through today gives the plot below, which doubtless has significant error bars not shown.  But it is the best I have. Caveat emptor.