2020-06-23
Total US C19 deaths 120,402
Last five daily = [715 692 595 258 425]
Future estimates
124149 +/- 1529 = Jul 1 total (95% confidence)
133420 +/- 1529 = Aug 1
137898 +/- 1529 = Sep 1
Total world C19 deaths 472,171
Last five daily = [5020 6090 4452 3876 3774]
Future estimates
487592 +/- 175534 = Jul 1 total (95% confidence)
572467 +/- 175534 = Aug 1
637861 +/- 175534 = Sep 1
Total Brazil C19 deaths 51,271
Last five daily = [1238 1206 1022 615 680]
Future estimates
59046 +/- 10003 = Jul 1 total (95% confidence)
80349 +/- 10003 = Aug 1
90593 +/- 10003 = Sep 1
Total Arkansas C19 deaths 227
Last five daily = [11 6 10 1 2]
As hoped, by applying yesterday's trained neural network to today's data the fit is revised by addition of the new data point. You can compare yesterday's NN result on your own to see the effect. Very nice.
Score = 0.917
Neural Net: MLPRegressor(activation='tanh', alpha=0.0001, batch_size='auto', beta_1=0.9,
beta_2=0.999, early_stopping=False, epsilon=1e-08,
hidden_layer_sizes=(15,), learning_rate='constant',
learning_rate_init=0.001, max_fun=15000, max_iter=2000,
momentum=0.9, n_iter_no_change=10, nesterovs_momentum=True,
power_t=0.5, random_state=5, shuffle=True, solver='lbfgs',
tol=0.0001, validation_fraction=0.1, verbose=False,
warm_start=False)
Total World C19 deaths 472,154
Last five daily = [5020 6090 4452 3876 3774]
Future estimates
4424 = Jul 1 daily (day 161)
4507 = Aug 1 daily (day 192)
4581 = Sep 1 daily (day 223)
