Monday, October 28, 2024

2024 Energy Transition Perception Survey

Thank you everyone who responded to this survey. Much appreciated!


If we take capacity factor as the measure of reliability, nuclear and geothermal lead with about 95%. Note: capacity factor is the percentage of time annually that a power plant is actually producing electrical power.


All of the fuel energy sources (coal, gas, nuclear) are ultimately supply-limited on the century scale. Solar, wind and geothermal are unlimited, but rare earth elements in solar and recycle/wildlife issues with wind make them less environmentally sustainable than geothermal. If you think hydro is environmentally benign, talk to a wildlife biologist or read this

This one is a bit subjective depending on the humans being considered: consumers, those living near power plants, those mining minerals necessary for energy production?


The US Energy Information Administration predicts 2050 generation as 44% renewables, 34% natural gas, 12% nuclear, and 10% coal. In order of dominance, their 2050 scenario for renewables is solar, wind, hydro, geothermal.


This depends on several factors including which government incentives are included, whether coal and gas  include carbon capture technology, etc. Nuclear reactivation has a relatively low cost, but new build is one of the highest. The Visual Capitalist take on this question is shown below.